Statistics, physics and psychology

Killinochi has Fallen; Now What?

Defeat is an ugly thing, and as Wellington once observed "Nothing except a battle lost can be half so melancholy as a battle won." It is better, when corpses and the detritus of battle are strewn around, to be on the winning side.

Elation in victory is normally for sports and elections. For soldiers in the field a winning campaign is hard work, mind-numbing fatigue, and a stiff casualty toll. It's even worse for the losers.

The brilliant military analyst Richard Simpkin once observed that the conduct of warfare is an interplay of three disciplines: Statistics, physics and psychology. Nowhere is this more evident than when one side breaks and crumbles in a long conflict.

Defeat, like so many other human events, comes in on a logarithmic curve. The Confederate Army of Northern Virginia held for 10 months in an increasingly desperate defence of Richmond during the American Civil War; once it broke the end came in two weeks. In June of 1918, the Germans looked to be winning the war on the Western Front; within six weeks the situation reversed; and their armies disintegrated before the November Armistice.

After 24 years of Civil War (and another decade of terrorism before that), the LTTE's guerrilla forces were dislodged from much of Sri Lanka in 2008. The Sri Lankan Army began a slow methodical set-piece offensive against the critical sanctuary areas in the north of the Island last autumn. The Tiger defence of their 'capital' Killinochi became increasingly unsustainable, and the town fell by January 2nd.

Now the guerrillas are on the steep face of that logarithmic curve and scrabbling to keep a toe-hold on parts of the Jaffna Peninsula. In some places, the depth of their defences can be measured in a few hundred metres.

Given the inevitability of the defeat of their field force, one must wonder why the Tamil Tigers are still fighting. Moreover, what do the dynamics of defeat hold for them?

There is a fine line between stalwart defiance and pointless sacrifice; and between heroic endurance and carnage for its own sake. The difference is hope, and the LTTE does not have any. Moreover, the history and character of the Tiger warlord, Vellupillai Prabhakaran suggests surrender is unlikely.

People like Prabhakaran have been seen before in the blood splattered pages of history. The leaders of terrorist groups and ideological movements often display pathological behaviours, as do many of the great dictators like Mao, Stalin and Hitler. Abu Nidal, the PKK's Abdullah Ocalan, Jorge Briceno Suarez of FARC, and the Aum Shinrikyo leader Shoko Asahara all had histories that suggest psychopathic or sociopathic tendencies.

What this normally means is some combination of egocentrism and anti-social behaviours; a lack of guilty feelings, compassion for others, or of anxiety. While Prabhakaran is fairly secretive, what is known of him over the past 35 years suggest these traits apply to him. For example, there is his lack of tolerance for rivals or the manipulation of followers into becoming suicide cadres. Before he started putting on weight, his poses for pictures also displayed revealing body-language.

In defeat or when encountering reverses, leaders like Prabhakaran tend to view their followers as extensions of their 'will', and - lacking empathy or compassion - are only too willing to spend their followers lives without restraint. One might be reminded of Hitler's use of the elderly and children in the Volksturm Militias as the Allies rolled over Germany.

As the cause crumbles, and people that such leaders once controlled look to their own survival; terrorists and dictators often feel 'betrayed'. This only encourages them to continue the waste of lives, and to seek the destruction of everything they once claimed to stand for. Cult leaders, like Jimmy Jones of the 1978 Jonestown Massacre, can also behave the same way. It is a selfish trait: "If I can't have them, nobody can."

Delusional behaviour is often evident as a cause collapses. In 2003 we were all entertained by the Iraqi information minister 'Comical Ali', who reassured reporters that the Americans were being thrashed even as they rolled into Baghdad. Hitler kept assuming that his exhausted legions in 1945 were as potent as they had been three years earlier, and turned to his horoscopes for reassurance.

It is a common error for dictators and terrorists to eventually believe their own propaganda, and it becomes more common as the facts they must deal with grow increasing unpalatable. Prabhakaran - ruthlessly intelligent and self-disciplined by many accounts - may be falling into the same mistake now.

Is Prabhakaran employing draconian measures to keep conscripted Tamils fighting to the end, even when all hope of victory is gone? Is this because he wants them to die as his own dreams end?

Of course, at heart, most such men are cowards themselves and seek to avoid accepting the consequences for their acts. Hitler committed suicide; Ocalan and Shoko Asahara pled for mercy, and Saddam Hussein had to be pulled out of a tiny hiding hole. Prabhakaran has often said he would die rather than give up his fight or be captured; we shall see just how much of this was posturing.

Groups like the Tamil Tigers that aspired to form governments of their own end up creating their own 'alternative' institutions to those of the state they are fighting. Over the years, these institutions take on an importance of their own, and can be hard to jettison when times turn tough.

Mao had porters dying of exhaustion lugging around printing presses during the start of the Long March. Hitler took comfort from the massive architectural model of his proposed new capital even as Soviet artillery start shelling Berlin. After General Lee surrendered the Army of Northern Virginia, the rump of the Confederate government attempted to function from horseback for several weeks.

Is the Tiger's administrative apparatus scuttling about with the rump of their guerrilla forces? Do they dream of fully re-establishing themselves somewhere, even as they abandon their office furniture? There is something pathetically human about trying to keep a kernel of normal activity intact as your world collapses.

Defeat is always ugly, and becomes uglier still when violence continues after all hope of victory is gone. But one thing is certain: The true nature of the Tamil Tiger's founder and leader will finally be manifest. After 35 years of bravado, will he himself run, hide, commit suicide or negotiate exile? Or will he actually be found dead in the last trench?

The Mackenzie Institute

The Institute was formed in 1986 to provide research and comment on such diverse subjects as terrorism, organized crime, political extremism, propaganda, conflict and other such matters. It does not shy away from controversy.

The Institute holds to the proposition that our democratic institutions need to be defended and enhanced, and works to do what it can to protect the stability of Canadian society.

Those who support its purposes are invited to become Friends of the Institute, and those who contribute $60 (or more) to it, receive its publications for the next twelve months.

John Thompson is President of the Mackenzie Institute which studies political instability and terrorism. He can be reached at: institute@mackenzieinstitute.com

The Mackenzie Institute

The Institute was formed in 1986 to provide research and comment on such diverse subjects as terrorism, organized crime, political extremism, propaganda, conflict and other such matters. It does not shy away from controversy.

The Institute holds to the proposition that our democratic institutions need to be defended and enhanced, and works to do what it can to protect the stability of Canadian society.

Those who support its purposes are invited to become Friends of the Institute, and those who contribute $60 (or more) to it, receive its publications for the next twelve months.