The Latest News from the Fronts

by John Thompson

11/24/03

Car bombs in Istanbul, Baghdad, and — almost — in Kabul; the struggle over the soul of the Islamic world continues to see the horrible facts of asymmetrical war become manifest.

In asymmetrical warfare, the coyote and the sheepdog wage their eternal struggle over the fate of the sheep. The coyote has the initiative to strike wherever he senses the sheepdog is weak or inattentive. The sheepdog, although more powerful and deadly than the coyote, cannot remain eternally vigilant at every point — so the coyote can almost always get through.

The latest al Qaeda attacks on a guarded compound for Christian Arabs in Saudi Arabia, and on two synagogues, a bank and a British consulate in Turkey clearly demonstrate the vulnerability that even alert governments must deal with.

The Saudis have seen numerous al Qaeda attacks and know that they must safeguard all foreigners in their country against the Fundamentalists. The attack on the compound (which killed the new wife of a Canadian citizen) delivered a number of messages. The whole point of terrorism is terror — and to force people to make decisions out of fear. The attack intimated that the Saudi government is impotent to protect all the guest workers that make its economy run; and told the victims that they must either leave or choose sides in the greater war of Fundamentalist Islam versus Arab governments. The attackers’ use of Saudi police uniforms also intimated that the Saudi government that it cannot trust its own servants, and so should nobody else.

In the Islamic World, Turkey is perhaps the most modern and liberal state — its economic successes are not buoyed up by oil, but were earned the hard way. The Military and Civil Service insistence on official secularism allow non-Islamic minorities to fully participate in society, and the Turks maintain a friendly and cooperative relationship with Israel. They also are a democratic state, a NATO member, and have long sought entry into the European Union. Naturally, al Qaeda and its component terrorist networks despise Turkey.

The Jewish synagogues in Istanbul have been attacked before, and the recent car-bombings (which killed far more Muslim Turks than Jewish ones) should not have been a surprise, but it was unusual for Al Qaeda to follow up this attack with another pair of attacks this week. One attack hit a British bank and another hit the British Consulate in Istanbul. This second attack allowed al Qaeda to hit two birds with one stone, by being simultaneously a slap in the face to the Turks and to the British. Another message from al Qaeda, indirectly written in the spilled blood of so many Turks, is that the Turks also must choose sides in this struggle.

Those who know the Turks well have no doubts about what the Turks will do — they are a grim people with a strong stubborn streak and really dislike being threatened. More attacks in Turkey will probably result in a greater resolve to combat Islamic fundamentalism. One hopes that their steadfastness will be rewarded with increased economic ties with the Western nations.

In Iraq and Kabul, the coyotes are attacking the sheep dogs along with the sheep. Americans get twitchy about keeping their soldiers too long from home and dislike seeing them vulnerable and exposed. The leftover Baathist guerrillas of Iraq know this, and are also attempting to use terror to destroy or destabilize new and reformed Iraqi institutions as fast as they appear.

However, in Iraq, the Americans and Coalition forces are getting their own blows in too — so far over 700 guerrillas have been killed since the insurgency began, and over 2,000 have been captured. In proportion to the losses they have inflicted, this is a losing proposition for the guerrillas. The American ability to gather intelligence on the opponents is rapidly improving too — as a recent series of devastating strikes indicate. Alas, guerrilla conflicts are never quickly resolved, and Saddam’s remaining followers (who can expect nothing but imprisonment from a free Iraqi government) will still be killing US troops and Iraqi policemen a year from now.

In Afghanistan, al Qaeda and the Taliban have been able to emerge from hiding and renew their murderous ways by probing the defences of Kabul and engaging in a hide-and seek war with US/NATO special forces elsewhere in the country. Again, they are receiving more casualties than they inflict, but this will not prevent them from being sustaining a guerrilla movement there for years to come. The battle between the Coyotes and the Sheep Dogs will continue.

John Thompson is President of the Mackenzie Institute which studies political instability and terrorism. He can be reached at: mackenzieinstitute@bellnet.ca