One Giant Leap for ‘Hankind’

by John Thompson

10/27/03

China had just successfully completed its first manned space flight — an ominous sign.

There are three reasons for running a space program: For scientific and commercial reasons; for military purposes; and for national prestige. Insofar as scientific and commercial reasons go, these activities are largely international — as the success of the International Space Station can now demonstrate. Commercial launch facilities are widely available (indeed China learned much for its recent flight by launching other people’s satellites with converted ballistic missiles). The Russians and Americans have also been generous in getting personnel from other nations into space for peaceful purposes.

Space is a vital sector for military and for dual-use technologies too. For all the kvetching about the ‘militarization’ of space; it has been the pathway for ballistic missiles since 1944 when the first German V-2 Rocket crashed into London (achieving the edge of space on its flight as it did so). Naturally, both Russia and the US have satellites up to monitor each other’s nuclear launch sites, and for secure communications, gathering signals intelligence, and so on.

A better example of the military/dual-use use of space comes from the American Global Positioning Satellite system, which is used to guide troops and steer missiles and smart bombs, but also is used by tens of millions of civilian users every day. In any event, to launch specialized military communications or reconnaissance satellites, it does help to have your own space agency (or excellent relations with an ally that has one).

China’s launch of a military officer into space is a clear sign of an intention to be the third nation with a military space program. It is also a clear sign that they intend to be treated as a superpower in their own right — which in China’s case means that real trouble. In the psychological sense, for all the ancient history of their culture, China is a new nation and does not feel bound by the normal conventions. Also, when in doubt they fall back on the dubious historical examples of their own past: They will expect the humble deference of their neighbors and want the US (actually, all of the Western World) to stay clear from what they regard as their region of the world.

It will be a little while before the Chinese can match the Russians — never mind the

Americans — in terms of the quality and quantity of military satellites, but — forty years late they have entered the field. There are other concerns.

Forty years ago, at the height of the Cold War, both the US and the Soviets were thinking about placing nuclear weapons in orbit (the Yanks were going to call these FOBs — fractional orbit bombardment systems). The advantages were that an armed satellite could dump several megatons of destruction on Moscow or Washington with a couple of minutes warning — the temptations and risks associated with such FOBs made it necessary that there was an early treaty between the two banning the deployment of nuclear weapons in space. China, of course, is outside of the framework of arms control, verification and confidence building measures that grew up between the US and the USSR.

National prestige is also important to China and it is time to acknowledge some of the uglier aspects of their national psychology: "Appropriate in stature, quick in movement and unafraid of hardship, Chinese astronauts are obviously superior." So said Su Shuangning, head of the PRC’s Space Program in a January 2003 press conference on the planned launching of their ‘Divine Ship’ manned rocket. Dissecting the sentence can give one the idea that the good doctor believes his ‘Taikonauts’ are racially superior to big soft slow Russians, Americans and all the other Cosmonauts and Astronauts who have entered to space.

Presently, the newspapers of the Chinese world are comparing the successful launch of a rocket with the Shuttle disaster last winter, even claiming that the US space program is doomed because of Western inferiority in comparison to the wholesome virtues of the Han people of China. (It might be also noted that there was much hilarity in the Chinese media after the 9-11 attack, with depictions of the panicked people of New York being a favorite item — the CDs and Videos are still commercially available in much of China.)

There are some aspects of this Chinese ‘triumph’ that have escaped popular notice in China. The Russians and Americans have been sending people into orbit for over 40 years, so the science isn’t that hard — especially for a country that has such an aggressive program of technological espionage as China does.

As China goes into space, watch for things to get ugly.

John Thompson is President of the Mackenzie Institute which studies political instability and terrorism. He can be reached at: mackenzieinstitute@bellnet.ca