What comes after Baghdad?

by John Thompson

04/14/03

It is not yet over in Iraq, and any trooper who still must kick down a door where somebody might be waiting with an AK-47 on the other side is not going to feel any great sense of relief just yet. Still, it is time to wonder about what comes next.

There is much unfinished business to be done in Iraq. The issue of weapons of mass destruction was used as the casus belli, so Iraq’s remaining holdings of sarin and anthrax need to be found. There have been promising leads at several sites where suspicious materials have been found, but confirmation must wait until thorough testing.

The whereabouts and fate of many of Iraq’s former leaders has yet to be determined, and Iraqis will not feel truly liberated until they are certain that Saddam and his sons are dead. Moreover, if they are at large, they might inspire continued resistance in the form of a guerrilla or terrorist movement by die-hard supporters. Such a movement could attract determined anti-Western Arabs who--despite all evidence to the contrary--believe Saddam is a ‘hero’. But hopefully Saddam is dead, and hopefully he perished miserably--sic semper tyrannis.

Besides finding Saddam’s carcass, a number of other figures deserve to be captured-- even if only to spur the development of an Iraqi justice system, and give the people of Iraq a chance to know that those who tortured so many of them can answer for it.

The Americans and British also have a tricky civil dilemma to sort through. They need to restore basic services, stabilize the country, re-establish a number of services, let the Iraqis form endurable new political institutions (stiffened with Western precepts and practices,) and leave before their welcome wears off. A good start has been made on the first task, but there is much that can easily still go very wrong.

The American administration has seldom hinted at what must be one of the primary psycho-political impulses behind the war, the need to let the Arab/Muslim world know what happens to regimes that seriously annoy the Western World. Of all of the causes of this war, this was perhaps the most important--even if nobody dares to express it. There are initiatives to be made while the rest of the impression is still strong.

Despite the conspiracy theorists and armchair strategists who note that the Americans now have the most powerful field force in the world lodged in the heart of the Middle East, the U.S. is not about to invade Syria or Iran. There are no legal grounds for such a war, and neither America’s Coalition partners nor its public would stand for it. However, pressure might have to be placed on Syria to stop it from continuing to operate an exit route for wanted Iraqi officials. Syria also has weapons of mass destruction, shelters terrorist groups, and is in illegal occupation of another nation’s territory. Moreover, two of those three charges can also be leveled at both Israel and Iran.

Israel’s safety from formal military attack has now been significantly reduced--of the states which it has fought so many times, only Syria now remains as a potential threat. It might be time for the United States to offer a deal; that Israel would be willing to declare the existence of its nuclear arsenal and delivery means, if Iran and Syria do likewise, and would be willing to engage in formal arms control talks. Moreover, Israel might be (with some polite Washington arm-twisting) be willing to leave the Golan Heights and Mount Hebron, provided that Syria pull all of its garrisons out of Lebanon.

The conduct of the American and British forces in Iraq has also paid dividends--the Iranian regime has just signaled that it is time to open up relations with the United States, and can also expect to come under even more internal pressure to reform.

The sorry Palestinians are now in psychic shock again, after having fixed their affections to another ‘strongman’ and having lost a sponsor for suicide attacks. While the war was underway, Israel also took the opportunity to put the boots to Hamas and the other groups that have undermined any agreement reached with Arafat’s Palestinian Authority. This is one of those rare times when an unpleasant reality check has asserted itself on their minds, and perhaps the Palestinians might be persuaded to seek newer, more responsible leadership. Alas, of all the results that might accrue from this war, this is the most unlikely outcome.

John Thompson is President of the Mackenzie Institute which studies political instability and terrorism. He can be reached at: mackenzieinstitute@bellnet.ca