Iraq's Hidden Arms Emerge
by John Thompsn
January 17, 2003
On January 16th, the world took two steps and a small hop down the path to war in Iraq. As usual, Saddam will have no one to blame but himself, not that this will stop the usual chorus of critics from screaming at President Bush.
The head of the UN Weapons Inspections, Dr. Hans Blix recently told the press (after briefing a room full of European Union leaders) that Iraq has been in violation of its cease-fire agreement and has been illegally acquiring conventional arms — such as new anti-aircraft missiles. He had not yet reported finding weapons of mass of mass destruction, but Dr. Blix did say that the Iraqis were being very uncooperative.
That same afternoon, UN inspectors turned up 11 hidden rockets that are intended to carry chemical or biological agents, and are testing a 12th one -- which presumably is full of something, hence the caution. As a ‘smoking gun’ this is something of an empty derringer. The rockets are ammunition for old Soviet-designed BM-21 multiple rocket launcher system, a battlefield artillery weapon, not a long-range missile. The Iraqis used hundreds of such rockets to spray Iranian soldiers with mustard gas and nerve agents in 1986-88, and UN inspectors destroyed hundreds more during their inspections in 1993-98.
The discovery of the rockets implies several things: First, they were carefully stored and pronounced to be "in excellent condition". This suggests they were not lost or mislaid, but were probably being kept for future use. A battery of six BM-21s can chew through a lot of ammunition — firing 240 rockets in a single salvo — so finding 12 suggests that either Iraq’s remaining holdings of this ammunition are either widely dispersed or very scanty. Still, the Iraqis can always make more rockets when the nasty inspectors go away.
Despite Iraq’s voluminous declaration to the Weapons Inspectors last December — they sent some 12,000 pages of documents, most of which had nothing to say and the few that did had been seen before — these declarations have already been found to be lacking in substantive detail. For a start, when the last round of Inspections ended in 1998, the Iraqis were reported to have still had several thousand litres of nerve gas and biological agents hidden away. The 2002 Iraqi declaration said nothing about this inventory.
Since 1998, the Iraqis were known to have attempted to acquire components for centrifugal separators, machinery that separates weapons-grade uranium from reactor-grade uranium. Although the Iraqis swear on a stack of Qurans that they came clean with their latest declaration, there is no word on why they were trying to get their mitts on this machinery. Nor do they mention why they needed a chemical that acts as a thickening agent for biological weaponry, or why they tried to get thousands of auto-injectors full of atropine — a necessary first aid item for people who have been exposed to nerve gas -- last autumn from Jordan.
Nor have the Iraqis said much about their new test-bed sites for new rocket engines, or why they were fitting old jet trainers with spray tanks and converting them into unmanned drones.
It is quite clear that the Iraqis are in violation of UN orders compelling them to rid themselves of weapons of mass destruction and delivery systems for them. Imagine Canadian police visiting the home of a gunman who has been ordered to give up all of his firearms because of recent violent crimes: While there, they find no smoking gun, except for an empty derringer, but have heard gun shots, seen spent casings and empty rifle racks, and are interviewing sullen family members who "ain’t heard nuthin’" and won’t say anything more. Oh, and although the officers are ordered to look for forbidden firearms, they can’t help noticing the occasional machete, switchblade and spiked baseball bat. Plainly, this fellow is not someone whose word is good, or whom it is safe to turn your back on.
The last development of the January 16th was simple enough: The Saudis told Iraq’s generals that their crimes (which are many and grievous) might be forgiven if they toppled Saddam from power. A generous offer, if any of them are daring enough to take it up, but Saddam has ears everywhere and ruthless ways of dealing with any Iraqis who cross him… and their families.
Don’t bet on this coup ploy succeeding; bet on war in late February. Saddam has left the United Nations with no other choices, and if they don’t act, the US will.
John Thompson is President of the Mackenzie Institute which studies political instability and terrorism. He can be reached at: mackenzieinstitute@bellnet.ca
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