Half-Fused Peace in Sri Lanka

by John Thompson

February 18, 2002

With a salvo of pistol shots, Vellupillia Prabhakaran began his bid for influence and power through the use of terrorism. Since his 1974 murder of a Tamil politician, this erstwhile smuggler and extortionist’s war has killed some 70,000 people, while his Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) have set up a global network of political fronts and criminal enterprises — especially in Canada. With the ceasefire of February 22^nd, is this really going to come to an end?

The current ceasefire is the third one agreed to by the LTTE and the Sri Lankan government, and maybe the third one will be the charm… maybe, but altruism and high ideals have never characterized Prabhakaran, and Sri Lanka’s interest in peace is based on the enormous costs that the dead-locked war has presented.

Sri Lanka cannot afford to let the LTTE’s long goal of an independent Tamil Eelam become real. India, looming like a tiger over Sri Lanka’s rabbit, cannot tolerate an independent Tamil state either, as it could fatally harm their own unity.

However, Prabhakaran has told his followers that they can kill him if he ever strays from the long-stated goal of an independent Tamil state. In the two previous ceasefires, the Tigers used the interlude to restock their arsenal and prepare for major offensives.

It should be remembered that the Norwegians, who helped broker the ceasefire, also helped arrange the deal between Arafat and Israel — ceasefires do not guarantee peace when both sides have irreconcilable goals. The Canadian government has offered its support although many cabinet members have ties to the Tiger’s political fronts.

If statesmen and diplomats have a fatal weakness, it would seem to be a basic inability to recognize a hooligan when they see one. Mackenzie King thought (before 1939) that Hitler was a rough but admirable fellow and Roosevelt was totally unable to understand Stalin. Taking the LTTE’s word at face value could be an error in this tradition.

Fundamentally, terrorists and insurgents do not initiate wars for political reasons; their real motivation is better explained by Sociologists and Psychologists — Abraham Maslow’s theory of "Hierarchy of Needs" is probably the best explanation of all. The leaders of terrorist movements are "self-actualizing" and their followers are most interested in status and prestige. The cause comes second and is often invented or distorted to meet these unarticulated needs.

The LTTE’s long war with Sri Lanka has been good for Prabhakaran — he has risen from his humble roots to become the shadowy leader of a deadly guerrilla army with an international network of supporters. In the web-sites and literature of the Tiger’s and their fronts, he has become much more than a mere guerrilla… some of them describe him as a Sun God figure. Others articulate a "hidden history" of the Tamils, promoting them from low caste to high caste warriors whose real identity was, naturally, robbed from them by jealous Colonial administrators. This is surprising, considering how eager the British usually were to recruit soldiers from India’s so-called ‘Martial Races’ during the days of the Raj but illogic becomes logic when proposing conspiracy theories.

Also, as the World has seen with so many terrorist groups, peace had little to offer them; which is why — as is the case with the LTTE — the violence continues long after the conditions that created it have changed.

Those hopeful of advancing peace in Sri Lanka should wonder why the LTTE’s leader would surrender status, influence and power for an impossible political goal; especially if a failure to achieve an independent Tamil Eelam invites his own death.

The fallout from September 11^th has affected the Tigers too, as their overseas networks are in danger of being shut-down — even in Canada where about half of their supporters reside. Money laundering is becoming more difficult and a continued war courts the risk of American military assets coming to Sri Lanka’s aid; letting the deadlocked conflict swing the government’s way. So, perhaps the best plan is to pull back, appear willing, and come blasting out when the American fury against terrorism has abated… but maybe, just maybe, Prabhakaran is serious this time.

The ceasefire is supposed to lead to peace-talks, but Sri Lanka had best ask for a show of good faith. If the LTTE wants peace, perhaps they should offer to put down their surface to air missiles and heavy mortars. Otherwise, this ceasefire is just another hold-fire and the war will resume. Against this risk, Ottawa should keep up the heat on the Tiger’s supporters here.

John Thompson is President of the Mackenzie Institute which studies political instability and terrorism. He can be reached at: mackenzieinstitute@bellnet.ca